Cascading Failure Models and Blackout Risk in Regional Power Grids

Abstract

Modern society is fundamentally dependent on the continuous and reliable supply of electrical power. Regional power grids, which serve as the critical infrastructure bridging high-voltage transmission networks and local distribution systems, are increasingly exposed to complex operational vulnerabilities. Among the most severe threats to these systems are cascading failures, a phenomenon where the initial loss of a single or a few components triggers a sequence of subsequent outages, ultimately culminating in widespread blackouts. This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of existing cascading failure models and their applicability in assessing blackout risk within regional power grids. By systematically evaluating abstract topological models, direct current power flow models, and alternating current power flow models, this study identifies the structural and operational assumptions that govern failure propagation dynamics. The analysis delves into the intricate relationship between network topology, operational constraints, and the resulting vulnerability of regional grids. Through rigorous comparative evaluation, the paper elucidates the trade-offs between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy inherent in different modeling paradigms. The findings highlight the critical importance of selecting context-appropriate modeling strategies for vulnerability identification, resilience planning, and the mitigation of large-scale blackout events.